SINGAPORE/BANGKOK/HANOI/MANILA/KUALA LUMPUR – The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has officially declared the onset of La Niña in early February, a climate phenomenon known to bring increased rainfall and cooler temperatures to parts of Southeast Asia, including Singapore. However, experts warn that the expected cooling effect will be mitigated by the persistent influence of long-term global warming.

Impact on Singapore

While La Niña typically results in wetter conditions and marginally lower temperatures in Singapore, the MSS highlighted that recent March to May temperatures—historically among the warmest months—remain elevated compared to similar La Niña events of previous decades. Despite the climate phenomenon’s presence, temperatures are still higher than those observed during La Niña occurrences 40 years ago, underscoring the ongoing impact of global warming.

“We expect increased rainfall and slightly cooler days, but the reduction in temperature is less pronounced due to long-term climate change,” the MSS stated in its latest advisory.

Weather Shifts Across Southeast Asia

Beyond Singapore, other Southeast Asian nations are also experiencing notable weather shifts due to La Niña:

• Malaysia: Increased rainfall is forecasted, particularly in the east coast states of Kelantan, Terengganu, and Pahang. Flood risks are elevated, similar to past La Niña years, though rising average temperatures mean humidity levels may feel more intense.
• Indonesia: The western and central parts of Indonesia, including Sumatra and Java, are bracing for above-normal precipitation, which could exacerbate flooding and landslides. However, unlike past La Niña years, coastal cities such as Jakarta are likely to experience higher temperatures overall, compounding the urban heat island effect.
• The Philippines: Typically, La Niña brings stronger monsoon rains, raising concerns over increased typhoon activity and flooding in Luzon and Visayas. However, this year’s impact is expected to be less severe than previous La Niña events due to shifting global climate patterns.
• Thailand and Vietnam: While northern Thailand and Vietnam may see cooler conditions, rainfall is expected to be uneven. Some regions might experience extended dry spells, a deviation from the usual widespread wet conditions associated with La Niña.

Summary of Meteorological Findings

Meteorological services across the region agree that La Niña’s traditional cooling effect is now being counteracted by long-term global warming trends. Although increased precipitation is expected in many areas, temperatures remain elevated compared to historical La Niña periods, highlighting the changing dynamics of climate systems.

As countries in Southeast Asia brace for the effects of La Niña, climate experts emphasize the importance of preparedness, particularly in flood-prone regions. Authorities continue to monitor the situation closely, providing timely updates and advisories to mitigate potential risks.

Despite La Niña’s influence, one thing remains clear: the long-term warming trend continues to reshape weather patterns across the region, demanding new strategies for climate resilience and adaptation. (zai)