CEBU – By adopting the language of restraint rather than recognition, Southeast Asia’s leaders are edging toward a more pragmatic, if controversial, approach to Myanmar’s military rulers following a widely criticized election held amid civil war.
At a gathering of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this week, Thailand urged what it described as “calibrated engagement” with Myanmar’s post-election government—short of full normalization, but more flexible than the bloc’s near-freeze on high-level contact since 2022. The Philippines, chairing the meeting, echoed that note of caution, saying the vote could offer limited openings without constituting an endorsement.
A Vote Rejected Abroad, Defended at Home
Myanmar’s military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party is expected to form a new government in March after winning elections held in three phases from late December to January. The polls were boycotted by opposition groups and conducted against the backdrop of an expanding armed rebellion triggered by the 2021 coup that ousted the civilian government.
International reaction was swift and severe. Human rights organizations, the United Nations, and governments including the United Kingdom dismissed the vote as a façade designed to entrench military rule. Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, countered that the elections conferred domestic legitimacy regardless of foreign criticism.
Thailand Signals Conditional Re-Engagement
Thailand’s foreign minister, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, said the election could open a narrow pathway for renewed contact—if Myanmar takes concrete steps to reduce violence and allow greater humanitarian access. Speaking to Reuters, he stressed that any re-engagement would be benchmark-based and incremental.
“We don’t anticipate Myanmar returning to ASEAN right away,” he said, adding that engagement would depend on measurable progress and responsiveness from Naypyitaw.
The Philippines Seeks Movement Without Endorsement
The Philippines’ foreign secretary, Ma. Theresa Lazaro, told reporters that ASEAN members were still assessing the election’s implications. While stopping short of support, she said some members saw the process as potentially “something positive” if it helped unlock dialogue.
ASEAN’s policy toward Myanmar, she emphasized, remains anchored in the bloc’s five-point consensus, which calls for an end to violence, inclusive political dialogue and expanded humanitarian aid. Even partial compliance, she said, could “make things move.”
The Philippines has recently hosted talks among Myanmar’s opposition groups in an effort to encourage dialogue—an initiative that reflects ASEAN’s continued preference for quiet diplomacy over public confrontation.
A Region Balancing Principle and Pragmatism
Myanmar has been locked in instability since the military overthrew the elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, igniting protests that evolved into a nationwide insurgency. Large parts of the country remain beyond the junta’s control.
For ASEAN, the debate now centers on whether limited engagement can moderate the generals’ behavior—or whether it risks lending credibility to a process widely rejected beyond the region. Western governments remain skeptical, while Southeast Asian capitals appear increasingly focused on managing spillover risks, from refugees to cross-border insecurity.
As one diplomat at the meeting put it privately, the question is no longer whether Myanmar’s election was flawed, but whether disengagement alone has any chance of ending a war now in its fourth year. (zai)