SINGAPORE – As the second term for Donald Trump in the White House draws closer, Southeast Asia’s future under his leadership is becoming a subject of intense speculation. While Singapore appears to stand to gain from a renewed partnership with the U.S., the outlook for ASEAN as a whole remains uncertain. The region, home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, is watching closely to see how Trump’s foreign policy, particularly in defense and economic affairs, might shift once he returns to office.

Mixed Signals for ASEAN: Will a Second Trump Term Favor Southeast Asia?

When Trump took office in 2017, he adopted an “America First” approach that was marked by a transactional style of diplomacy. This strategy left many ASEAN members grappling with the implications of an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding security and trade relations. As tensions rise in the South China Sea and the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, Southeast Asia finds itself at a crossroads, unsure of how a second Trump presidency will affect its future.

Security Concerns: A Continued Focus on the South China Sea

For many ASEAN members, the security landscape in the South China Sea is a critical concern. The region has long been a flashpoint in the U.S.-China rivalry, with Beijing asserting territorial claims over the vast waterway, a claim contested by several Southeast Asian nations. Trump’s first term saw him take a strong stance against China, with his administration frequently making headlines for its confrontational rhetoric and military presence in the area. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. Navy conducted several freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) near disputed islands, in a bid to challenge China’s territorial claims.

For Singapore, a key U.S. ally and a strategic partner in regional security, a second Trump term could provide continued support for its neutral but engaged role in ensuring peace and stability. Singapore’s strong defense ties with Washington make it one of the few ASEAN nations that could expect favorable treatment, particularly in terms of defense cooperation and security commitments.

However, the broader ASEAN region could find itself navigating a more difficult path. Countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, all with vested interests in the South China Sea, may find themselves caught between balancing relations with the U.S. and avoiding unnecessary confrontation with China. ASEAN’s traditional approach to security has been one of unity and neutrality, but Trump’s assertiveness on China could test the region’s ability to maintain a cohesive stance.

Economic Uncertainty: A Bilateral vs Multilateral Approach

Economically, Trump’s first term was defined by his protectionist policies, including the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports. His administration placed heavy emphasis on bilateral trade deals, seeking to address trade deficits with specific countries rather than pursuing broader multilateral economic frameworks. This stance could be a double-edged sword for ASEAN.

For Singapore, a global financial hub with an open economy, a second Trump presidency may provide new opportunities for closer economic cooperation. The city-state’s strategic location and strong trade links with the U.S. position it well to benefit from a potential increase in bilateral agreements, particularly in sectors like technology, finance, and advanced manufacturing. As Trump continues to push for “fairer” trade deals, Singapore could capitalize on its position as an economic partner with both the U.S. and China.

However, the outlook for the rest of ASEAN is less clear. While countries like Vietnam and Malaysia may see opportunities for expanded trade with the U.S., particularly as a result of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the broader regional picture is more complex. Trump’s preference for bilateral negotiations could undermine ASEAN’s collective economic initiatives, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement that includes China, Japan, and Australia. ASEAN’s future prosperity may be threatened if the U.S. continues to sideline multilateral agreements in favor of piecemeal, country-specific deals.

The Elephant in the Room: U.S.-China Rivalry and ASEAN’s Strategic Position

The U.S.-China rivalry is likely to remain the dominant factor in shaping the future of ASEAN’s relations with Washington. ASEAN members that are heavily integrated into global supply chains may find themselves caught in the middle of this great power competition. Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand have benefitted from both Chinese investment and trade, but a more aggressive stance from the U.S. under Trump could force ASEAN nations to choose sides or navigate a delicate balancing act.

ASEAN’s collective approach to China, emphasizing dialogue and cooperation, may be tested next year, particularly if tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea or over economic issues like trade and technology. ASEAN countries are deeply concerned about the economic and strategic consequences of becoming too closely aligned with either the U.S. or China. As such, many are hoping for a U.S. policy that respects ASEAN’s central role in regional diplomacy, even as Washington continues its competition with Beijing.

What ASEAN Hopes for Under a Second Trump Term

In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. election, ASEAN members were looking for clarity. While some, like Singapore, were cautiously optimistic about the continuation of strong bilateral relations, others were less certain about how a second Trump presidency would affect the broader region. There is a hope that the U.S. will move toward a more predictable and constructive engagement with ASEAN, particularly in areas like trade, investment, and regional security.

However, Trump’s track record in his first term leaves many questions unanswered. Will his administration shift from a bilateral, confrontational approach to one that considers the broader regional context? Or will ASEAN countries continue to navigate an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the face of growing Chinese influence in the region? (zai) – Photo: TIME