BERLIN – Germans’ willingness to travel and desire for vacations remain high in 2026. The travel industry is confident about the new tourism year and forecasts rising revenues for both the winter and summer seasons. “We expect growing demand particularly for cruises, long-haul travel, and the classic beach destinations in the eastern Mediterranean,” summarizes Albin Loidl, President of the German Travel Association (DRV), highlighting a key finding of the newly published forecast for the overall tourism market.
The DRV expects German consumers to spend around €86 billion on vacations and travel this year. This represents a three percent increase in revenue in the market for leisure and holiday travel with at least one overnight stay in the 2025/26 tourism year.
For its overall travel market forecast, which the DRV develops in cooperation with industry experts and publishes twice a year—at the beginning of the year and ahead of the summer season—both package and modular trips offered by tour operators as well as individually organized holidays are taken into account. Around half of total revenue in this overall market is generated by package and modular tours sold by tour operators.
“Travel remains a central need for many people this year as well. Even though many customers plan their trips more cost-consciously, the majority of Germans will still fulfill their vacation wishes in 2026,” says DRV President Loidl, expressing confidence in continued demand. Despite the optimistic outlook regarding stable travel sentiment and the revenue growth—which is by no means a given in the current overall economic situation in Germany—traveler numbers are not developing accordingly and remain slightly below pre-pandemic levels.
Experts therefore forecast that the number of travelers this year, at around 138 million, will remain slightly below last year’s level. Global geopolitical uncertainties, a challenging domestic economic environment with fears of job losses, and price developments all influence travel decisions. “This is where policymakers, destination countries, and tour operators are called upon to ensure that travel remains affordable in the future,” Loidl emphasizes.
Winter 2025/26: Demand for cruises increases
For the current winter season (November 1, 2025 to April 30, 2026), the DRV expects total travel spending for individual and package travel to rise by two percent to €28 billion. Demand for air travel to eastern mid-haul destinations as well as for long-haul travel is strong, with revenues increasing in both segments (long-haul up three percent, eastern mid-haul up four percent). Cruises remain in particularly high demand, with a projected revenue increase of six percent; according to the DRV, the number of cruise passengers will grow by three percent.
Overall, the number of travelers in the total market is expected to decline slightly by two percent compared with winter 2025, to just over 44 million. Fewer travelers than in the previous winter are expected in particular for so-called ground-based travel by car, train, or bus.
Summer 2026: Stable demand expected for flight-based package travel
For the key summer travel season, the DRV forecasts a three percent increase in revenue compared with last summer. According to projections, consumers will spend around €58 billion on travel. The number of travelers in the summer season (early May to the end of October) in the overall travel market is expected to remain stable at 93 million.
However, developments are expected to vary across segments: the DRV anticipates an increase in traveler numbers for mid-haul air travel and cruises, while a decline is expected for short-distance destinations in ground-based travel by car, train, or bus. Demand for long-haul travel is expected to remain stable. These are initial tendencies; it is still too early for reliable trends.
Current booking situation: Once again a very strong early-booking business
Even earlier than last year, vacation trips for the coming months—especially for the summer—are being booked through travel agencies and tour operators. A snapshot taken shortly before the end of last year for the tour-operator-organized market shows that the eastern Mediterranean countries, with a revenue increase of 22 percent, are recording the highest growth rates in both traveler numbers and revenue.
Turkey is the number one summer destination among early bookers, accounting for around one quarter of all tour operator trips booked so far for the coming summer. Egypt, Italy, mainland Spain, and Tunisia are also particularly popular among early bookers, according to current analyses by Travel Data + Analytics (TDA).
On the methodology of the DRV’s new market forecast
In cooperation with the management consultancy Dr. Fried & Partner and with the support of market analysts from Travel Data + Analytics (TDA), the German Travel Association (DRV) has developed a forecasting method to reliably predict likely developments in the German market for leisure and holiday travel with at least one overnight stay.
The quantitative market forecast is based on a consistent mathematical model that draws on historical and current booking data from both the tour operator and individual travel markets, while also taking economic influencing factors into account. The forecast results are then adjusted based on assessments by recognized industry experts.
About the DRV
As the umbrella organization of the travel industry in Germany, the German Travel Association (DRV) represents a significant economic force. Its members account for the largest share of revenue in the tour operator and travel agency market. The tourism industry provides around three million jobs. With several thousand member companies—including travel agencies, tour operators, and numerous companies from other tourism segments—the DRV has, for 75 years, formed a strong community that connects and unites diverse interests under the motto: “The travel industry. All destinations. One voice.”