TOKYO – As political tensions between China and Japan intensify over the future of Taiwan, travel between Asia’s two largest economies has fallen into an abrupt and unprecedented decline. More than 1,900 flights from China to Japan scheduled for December have been cancelled, accounting for over 40 percent of all planned routes this month, according to figures cited by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV and corroborated by several travel data providers in both countries.
The cancellations follow a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in public remarks last month that Japan could consider deploying military assets if a crisis were to erupt in the Taiwan Strait. Her comments drew swift condemnation from Beijing and ignited a broader wave of concern among Chinese travelers, students, and investors with ties to Japan.
A Warning From Beijing, and Rapid Fallout
On November 14, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a rare travel advisory urging its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Japan, citing what it described as “security risks.” Major Chinese carriers—including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern—soon introduced refund guarantees for Japan-bound passengers through year’s end.
The Japanese press has closely tracked the fallout. The Nikkei reported a “sharp and sudden contraction” in inbound demand from China, while NHK coverage highlighted concerns from regional airports and hospitality businesses that had anticipated a strong winter season rebound. Tourism officials in Hokkaido and Kyushu—regions heavily dependent on Chinese winter tourism—have publicly voiced fears that the downturn could extend well into 2025.
Chinese travel platforms say hundreds of thousands of customers have cancelled trips, prompting airlines to trim capacity week by week. Analysts warn the trend could persist even if diplomatic tensions cool.
Longer-Term Impact Looms
One senior travel analyst at a major Chinese online agency estimated that Chinese visitor numbers from January to April 2026 could fall by 40 to 50 percent compared with normal expectations if political frictions continue. “The biggest losses will occur on peak dates and major routes,” he said, noting that business travel inquiries have also softened.
Chinese media outlets, including People’s Daily Overseas Edition, have reported growing public unease about studying or investing in Japan. Applications for Japan-based academic programs and property tours—once a growing segment—have slowed markedly since mid-November.
A Tourism Redirection Across Asia
As Japan bookings collapse, other destinations are absorbing displaced demand. Travel agencies in Moscow and Seoul report a sudden influx of Chinese tourists seeking alternative year-end and Lunar New Year itineraries.
Russia in particular has emerged as an unexpectedly strong beneficiary. Its visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, combined with comparatively low travel costs, has made it a popular replacement destination for winter holidays. South Korea, Thailand, and Singapore have also recorded an uptick in bookings from the Chinese mainland over the past three weeks, according to data shared by several regional tourism boards.
An Uncertain Path Forward
While both Chinese and Japanese officials have publicly signaled a desire to prevent relations from deteriorating further, neither side has indicated when tensions might ease. In the meantime, airlines, hotels, retailers, and universities across Japan face mounting uncertainty.
For now, the skies over Northeast Asia remain a visible reflection of a wider geopolitical standoff—one measured not by military movements, but by empty seats on grounded planes. (zai)